Photo Credit: Alexandre Bonneau-Afroto/ALIMA
Scaling Pre-Disaster Cash for Climate Resilience in Bangladesh
Country: Bangladesh
Amount: $1,000,000
Duration: 8 months
Problem
Climate-driven disasters such as floods and cyclones are hitting vulnerable communities with increasing frequency. Each year, an estimated 26 million people globally are pushed into poverty by climate disasters. Bangladesh, a low-lying country crisscrossed by rivers, ranks among the top 10 most climate-affected countries. Seasonal floods in Bangladesh routinely destroy homes, crops, and livelihoods, leaving the poorest families struggling to recover. Traditional disaster aid often arrives only after the damage is done, which can be too little, too late for many survivors.
Research shows that providing cash assistance before a predicted disaster – known as anticipatory cash transfers (ACT) – can significantly reduce harm. Families can use the cash to reinforce their homes, protect assets (like moving livestock to safety), or evacuate to safer areas, thereby mitigating losses. Despite this knowledge, ACT programs are still rare and not at scale. Challenges include accurately predicting disasters, identifying who should receive cash, and getting the money out quickly. There are also gaps in evidence about the long-term benefits, which makes governments hesitant to fund such programs over traditional post-disaster relief.
Approach
Anticipatory Cash Program by GiveDirectly: Our funding enables GiveDirectly – a leading nonprofit in cash transfer programs – to implement an innovative ACT project in flood-prone regions of Bangladesh. The core elements are:
Advanced Disaster Forecasting: The program uses an AI-driven flood forecasting system developed for Bangladesh. This system analyzes weather data and river levels to predict major floods with a reasonable lead time (days to a week in advance). When a forecast crosses a certain risk threshold, it triggers the cash transfer process.
Digital Enrollment and Payment: Households in vulnerable areas are pre-enrolled in the program using digital tools. Mobile money accounts (widely used in Bangladesh) are set up for recipients. When a trigger is activated, money is sent directly to these accounts before the flood hits. This leverages Bangladesh’s extensive mobile banking network, ensuring rapid and transparent distribution of aid.
Targeting & Coverage: The project will test different methods of targeting aid: some communities may receive transfers broadly to all households, while others might focus on the poorest or those in flood zones. Overall, the pilot covers thousands of households across several flood-prone districts, providing them with a cash grant sufficient to cover essentials (food, water, shelter materials) for a few weeks.
Evaluation through RCT: Importantly, we are supporting a randomized controlled trial to rigorously evaluate the impact of giving cash early versus after a flood. Some areas will receive the anticipatory cash transfers, while control areas will receive standard post-disaster aid. Researchers will compare outcomes to fill critical knowledge gaps and guide future disaster response policy.
Path to Scale
GiveDirectly has a strong track record of government partnerships globally.
If this pilot demonstrates that ACTs significantly improve resilience, the Bangladeshi government and international donors will have the data needed to invest in scaling it. The program could be expanded along Bangladesh’s floodplains and even adapted for cyclone warnings in coastal areas. The use of existing mobile money infrastructure and forecasting tools means scaling mostly involves enrolling more households and securing funding for the cash transfers – both of which are feasible with government buy-in and donor support.
Success here could serve as a proof of concept for the world, leading to anticipatory cash programs in other climate-vulnerable countries (for example, drought early payments in African countries or typhoon preparedness in Southeast Asia). Our investment in this project not only helps Bangladeshi families immediately but could help catalyze a worldwide shift in how aid is delivered in the face of climate disasters, emphasizing proactive support rather than reactive relief.
Why we think the grant is cost-effective
ACT can mitigate disaster losses at up to 1/7 of the cost of traditional relief efforts.
By using mobile money and digital targeting, administrative and delivery costs drop, ensuring that 70% of funds go directly to recipients.
Compared to in-kind aid, with high logistical expenses, cash transfers allow beneficiaries to allocate resources according to their most pressing needs.